Q&A With Serhant’s California Head Ben Belack

“Owning Manhattan” star Ryan Serhant has been growing his namesake brokerage steadily across the country in recent years, culminating earlier this year in the opening of four California offices in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Orange County. To make the California dream a reality, Serhant tapped Ben Belack, formerly of The Agency, to lead the charge in the Golden State, bringing a team of agents along with him.

“Why not?” Belack told The Real Deal in April of his decision to join the brokerage. “I’ve known Ryan for some time and… he and I are extremely similar in our approach to the way we run our business overall.”

Now, the “Buying Beverly Hills” star has been tasked with heading Serhant’s operations in the Golden State as the company’s executive vice president of its California division. Having had some time to settle into the job, Belack spoke with The Real Deal about trends he’s seen so far across the L.A. market, Measure ULA, wildfire rebuilding efforts and more.

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

Serhant’s expansion this year also included four new offices in Texas. Have you been seeing a lot of sellers leaving L.A. for Texas, especially with California’s billionaire tax looming?

Texas, Florida, oh yeah. What stinks for the real estate agent is the longer you’re in a marketplace, as long as you don’t do a terrible job, you generally get referrals, and since like 2017 I’ve been feeling like people have been leaving. It’s scary, because this is the market share I’ve been working towards, right? So we have definitely been feeling on the ground people going, “You know what? Been here, done that.”

You told The Real Deal a few months ago that leaving The Agency was “one of the toughest, if not the toughest, decisions of [your] life.” Why was that?

I’m extremely close with the founders. I’ve had incredible personal experiences with them, but I would also call them mentors. There were many, many, many nights where I was there in the office with them until 8 o’clock at night, and I learned a lot from them, frankly, through a mileage of transactions and collaboration. But also, nothing was broken at The Agency, so that made it hard too.

Have some sellers been scared off by Measure ULA?

Absolutely. Measure ULA is kind of like the dark cloud over us. The non-family friendly topographical locations like Sunset Plaza have been historically more transient than locations south of Sunset, and so those folks who buy there are now being told that their appreciation is going to be levied in taxes. It’s extremely discouraging, especially when you’re a high-net-worth individual and your business manager is warning you of the risks.

What we’ve seen is a ton of high-end leases because people don’t want to sell their most expensive or one of their most expensive assets and have to pay 5.5 percent in taxes.

Last year you spearheaded a call to Gov. Newsom and Mayor Bass about loosening regulations around wildfire rebuilding. Now, a year and a half later, what have you been seeing on the ground?

It’s not easy to rebuild an entire town at the same time, but if the owners aren’t going to sell, it makes it tougher for the builders to build at scale, which discourages them, but it is clear that the City of Los Angeles is not encouraging them.

You want to speed up the rebuild? Just say, “Anyone who sells a house or a piece of land between now and the next few years in the Palisades, no mansion tax.” The builders can make a profit; they’ll buy 10 at a time. They’re just making it impossible. And because they’re disincentivized to build, they’re not going to pay a premium for the land, and that’s what the owners want. So we’re in this stalemate. And they’re still paying their mortgage, they’re still paying property taxes. That stuff doesn’t go away.

Up in San Francisco, the market is dealing with what many are calling a “mansion shortage.” Are you seeing a similar trend in L.A.?

Most of the big sales, they’re still cash buyers. However, high interest rates dictate consumer confidence. And if I’m a very well-off person, and I’m buying a house in the many millions for cash, and I think the market is sluggish, I’m looking for a deal.

I will say, L.A., at the high end, has been good this year already… In Orange County, we just had an over $100 million sale, and then in L.A., we’ve had at least five over $25 million that I’m just remembering off the top of my head. So there’s stuff moving.

Sometimes we find ourselves where the sellers think it’s 2021 and buyers think it’s 2008… So I do know there’s an appetite out there, but if the marketing is not emotionally captivating, you lower your probability of reaching the closing table exponentially.

Going into the rest of this year, do you expect to see more or less market action?

I think that there’s been a lot of people who’ve been waiting for a market price correction, but the thing is is because people have a 4 percent rate or better [in] a meaningful segment of the marketplace, at any given time, a large segment of those people are not going to list their homes for sale, which will always keep inventory relatively low. So I think worst case scenario, we remain flat, but I think that if the price of oil goes down, inflation will go down, which means the price of bonds will go down, and so then the interest rates will go down. I have a feeling that 2026 is going to feel a lot like 2025, where what they call the spring buying season is going to be in the fourth quarter.