Deloitte’s recently released report, “Building the Lunar Economy,” gathered insights from leaders on the future of the lunar economy. “What was once a niche corner of the space industry is becoming one of the fastest-moving frontiers, and the momentum is building quickly,” the report said.
Barriers to entry are eroding. The promise of resources is growing. And as scientific missions justify infrastructure, this could support commercial activity, which in turn will generate assets.
Some of that activity could stray into the realm of commercial real estate. But don’t expect lunar deeds and property lines to look much like their terrestrial counterparts.
“The lunar economy is still in its early stages,” Raquel Buscaino, Head of Novel & Exponential Technologies (NExT), Deloitte Consulting LLP, told Connect CRE.
“Once a foundational infrastructure is established, it could support downstream activity in areas including resources and materials, space data, manufacturing, and other services.”
Where the Necessities Are
Transportation and logistics, power, communications and navigation, construction, and life-support systems will need to come first before a broader commercial ecosystem can develop.
One challenge is that the resources needed to sustain a long-term presence are located in one of the Moon’s most difficult environments: the lunar South Pole.
On the plus side, some South Pole locations receive near-continuous sunlight for solar power and are close to permanently shadowed craters that could contain water ice.
This is why many upcoming missions are targeting this region, and are being considered for permanent lunar set-ups, including NASA’s Artemis Base Camp and China’s International Lunar Research Station.
“Water ice is useful for drinking water and to sustain general life support,” Buscaino said. “It can also be used to produce rocket propellant, which would be useful for return missions to Earth, as well as further exploration in deep space.”
At the same time, the South Pole is also a “landscape of jagged ridgelines and deep craters, where some regions have not seen daylight in billions of years,” the report said.
The “best” location on the Moon might not be defined by what’s there naturally. It also depends on what infrastructure can be built to support the activity.
“Ultimately, ‘location, location, location’ on the Moon will be a matter of both nature and nurture: the natural advantages a site offers, such as sunlight or water ice, and the infrastructure built around it to make those advantages useful,” Buscaino observed.
Who Owns the Dirt?
Unlike Earth land sites, which are governed by property deeds, contracts or leases, the current Outer Space Treaty doesn’t support traditional territorial ownership of the Moon. This makes the usual concepts difficult to apply directly.
Buscaino suggested that over time, more tailored approaches could emerge, including time-bound operating permissions, resource-extraction rights, or coordination arrangements for infrastructure and active sites.
“While no one entity may own the Moon, operators will want confidence that they can safely operate there, just as any organization would want here on Earth,” she added.
This would require a balance between creating certainty for operators and investors while preserving international principles connected to transparency, access and non-interference.
“The lunar economy is therefore more likely to be built first on operating rights and access than on a traditional deed to the dirt,” Buscaino said.
Exploring the First Anchor Tenants
Governments are likely to be the earliest anchor customers for the lunar economy.
“As national space agencies pursue more sustained lunar activity, their demand for power, communications, landing support, logistics, and mobility could help establish the first shared infrastructure,” Buscaino said.
Power and communications could support landing, construction and mobility, which would form the foundation for a potentially broader range of activities, including resource development, manufacturing and data services.
“Over time, this could create opportunities for providers to serve an increasingly diverse mix of customers,” Buscaino pointed out.
This already happened with Global Positioning Satellites (GPS). Once the purview of governments, it’s now used by businesses and in daily activities. Buscaino explained that the downstream uses weren’t the original purpose. However, the infrastructure spurred entrepreneurs and businesses to find commercial applications.
On the Moon, a space agency or a major commercial operator could mimic a terrestrial anchor tenant by generating reliable demand to make surrounding services more feasible.
“Still, the analogy has its limits as early lunar ‘tenants’ would likely be co-dependent on one another’s infrastructure in ways terrestrial businesses rarely are,” Buscaino said.
Focus on the Future
While the Moon is starting to be examined for its economic positives, the report said that “significant engineering hurdles remain, development timelines are long, and the commercial viability is still uncertain.”
Additionally, progress will depend on technological advances, geopolitical developments and sustained investment. However, “the debate is no longer whether humanity is going back to the Moon. It’s what happens once we stay,” the report said.
Lunar involvement is still far off for CRE professionals. However, when the time comes, “the commercial value may come from reliable access to key infrastructure, favorable operating conditions, and the rights or agreements that allow multiple operators to use a location without interfering with one another,” Buscaino said.
Photo generated by AI
