10 Housing Markets With the Biggest Jump in Pending Sales in January 2026

Even though the national picture for home sales contracts looked a bit chilly in January, I’ve noticed some real pockets of warmth where buyers are actively signing on the dotted line. According to data from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), ten housing markets experienced significant year-over-year jumps in pending home sales last month, signaling a potential comeback for certain areas and offering a ray of hope for those watching the real estate trends. This isn’t just a minor uptick; it’s a clear indication that some markets are defying the broader slowdown.

10 Housing Markets Where Pending Sales Jumped in January 2026

While the national Pending Home Sales Index showed a slight dip of 0.8% from the previous month and 0.4% year-over-year, this overall trend often masks localized strength. It’s like looking at the weather report for the entire country and missing the fact that one specific city might be basking in sunshine while others are battling a blizzard. In January, several metro areas proved this point, showing encouraging growth in buyer interest.

Factors at Play: Affordability and Lingering Hesitation

It’s no secret that housing affordability has been a major topic of conversation. NAR research highlights a crucial piece of good news: around 5.5 million more households can now qualify for a mortgage compared to a year ago, thanks to declining mortgage rates from their peak. When rates were hovering near 7%, many potential buyers were priced out. Now, with rates inching closer to 6%, that barrier has somewhat lowered, making homeownership a more attainable dream for a larger segment of the population.

However, as NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun rightly points out, improving affordability conditions have yet to induce a widespread buying frenzy. This is where my experience comes into play. I often see that even when the math checks out and more people can qualify, there’s still a psychological element at play. Buyers, especially first-time buyers, might be waiting to see if rates will drop even further, or they might be cautiously observing the broader economic climate before committing to such a significant purchase. My gut feeling is that while affordability is a necessary condition, it’s not always a sufficient one to immediately unlock pent-up demand.

Yun’s insights further confirm this. He mentions that while about 10% of these newly qualifying households might enter the market – potentially adding around 550,000 new home buyers this year – they don’t typically act immediately when rates fall. It’s a gradual process, and patience is often rewarded.

Where Buyers Are Signing: The Top 10 Markets

So, which of these markets are seeing this increased buyer activity? Here’s a breakdown of the top 10 from NAR’s data, showcasing impressive year-over-year gains in pending home sales:

(Data Source: Realtor.com® Economics citing NAR research)

What’s particularly interesting to me about this list is the geographic diversity. We see sprawling growth in cities like Phoenix and Miami, established markets like Boston and San Francisco, and also strong showings in more affordable regions like Charlotte and Oklahoma City. This suggests that while affordability is a national concern, specific local drivers are also at play.

Deciphering the Trends: What’s Driving These Jumps?

Let’s delve a bit deeper into some of these standout markets:

• Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.: A+11.8% is a substantial jump, especially for a market that experienced a significant boom and then a bit of a cooldown. My sense is that the price moderation seen in Phoenix might be reaching a point where it’s appealing again to a wider range of buyers, combined with the general improvement in mortgage rates. Builders might also be re-engaging with more attractive incentives.
• Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.: This is a high-cost market where a slight improvement in affordability can make a big difference. The presence of strong job markets and prestigious universities often creates sustained demand, so these buyers might be more resilient to moderate rate fluctuations.
• Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.: This market has been a consistent favorite for relocation due to its economic growth and relative affordability compared to other major East Coast cities. The rising pending sales here confirm its ongoing appeal.
• San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, Calif. & San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, Calif.: It’s fascinating to see California markets, known for their high price tags, showing positive movement. This could indicate that the price drops or stabilization we’ve seen in some of these areas over the past year or so are finally luring buyers back. The tech sector’s resilience, even with some adjustments, likely plays a role.
• Oklahoma City, Okla.: This region consistently offers more affordable housing options. Lower prices, combined with improving mortgage rates, make it a compelling destination for buyers looking for more value.

The Supply Conundrum: A Bottleneck or a Balancing Act?

While it’s encouraging to see more buyer activity, I can’t ignore the flip side: housing supply. Homeowners, especially those who locked in very low mortgage rates a few years ago, aren’t exactly rushing to sell their current homes. NAR’s data shows that housing inventories for existing homes were down slightly in January compared to December, and only up a modest 3.4% year-over-year. This is a stark contrast to the double-digit inventory gains we saw previously.

This presents a bit of a Catch-22. As more buyers become qualified and active, if the supply of homes doesn’t increase proportionally, we could see home prices start to climb again. Yun echoes this concern, stating, “Unless housing supply increases, these additional potential buyers becoming active in the market could simply push up home prices. This will put increasing pressure on affordability.”

The good news is that the issue of housing supply is gaining traction in policy circles. The recent passage of the “Housing for the 21st Century Act” in the House of Representatives is a positive step, showing that addressing the housing shortage is seen as a bipartisan priority. Building more homes and removing barriers is critical, especially with Realtor.com® estimating a nationwide housing deficit of nearly 4 million units.

What This Means for You

For buyers, these January numbers offer a more nuanced perspective. While the national market might feel slow, opportunities are clearly emerging in specific areas. If you’re in one of these ten markets, it might be worth exploring your options more actively. The improved affordability is a significant factor, but remember to factor in the potential for increased competition and price pressure if supply remains tight.

For sellers, if you’re in one of these growth markets, your property might be more attractive now than in recent months. However, it’s still crucial to price strategically, as the overall market is still sensitive. The fact that existing-home sales prices hit an all-time high in January at a national median of $396,800 is a double-edged sword; good for equity but a continued challenge for affordability.

Ultimately, the January data from NAR paints a picture of a market that’s not uniformly bleak. There’s a tangible shift happening in certain areas, driven by that crucial improvement in mortgage affordability. It’s a sign that buyer confidence, while perhaps cautious, is certainly present. I’ll be keenly watching to see if this momentum continues and if the crucial issue of housing supply can be addressed to support sustainable growth in these dynamic markets.