MBA estimates new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 641,000 units in February, based on application data and assumptions about market coverage. That is down 3.3% from an estimated 663,000-unit pace in January.
On an unadjusted basis, MBA estimates there were 57,000 new-home sales in February, down 1.7% from 58,000 in January.
Kan said macroeconomic uncertainty and a weakening job market likely weighed on demand, and he pointed to emerging signs of cooling in some high-supply Sun Belt markets despite slower home-price growth.
By product type, conventional loans made up 49.4% of February new-home purchase applications. Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans accounted for 35.3%, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) loans for 14.1% and Rural Housing Service/U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) loans for 1.2%, MBA reported.
The average new-home loan size declined to $383,570 in February, down $385,506 in January, suggesting some shift toward slightly lower price points or smaller loan balances.
MBA’s Builder Application Survey tracks application volume from mortgage subsidiaries of homebuilders nationwide and is viewed as a leading indicator for the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Sales report, which records new-home sales at contract signing.
The February data underscores a key dynamic in the 2026 housing market: new construction continues to capture demand that existing-home supply cannot meet, but monthly volatility remains tied to interest rates, employment and regional inventory patterns.
For lenders focused on purchase business, the steady year-over-year gain in new-home applications — alongside a modest drop in average loan size and elevated FHA share — points to a market where entry-level and first-time buyers remain active but rate-sensitive.
For builders and their mortgage affiliates, the pullback from January suggests that incentive strategies, rate buydowns and product mix will remain critical as higher inventory in some Sun Belt markets meets softening demand.
